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How I used maths to beat the bookies

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Gambling games accumulation 2016

Postby Shakasho В» 07.03.2020

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U ntil September last year, I had never really gambled. Some of my friends would bet on the football, and I could see how it could add an extra dimension to watching the game. That was all about to change. I was going to take everything I had learnt about the mathematics of football and apply it to a real-life situation.

I was determined to use maths to beat the bookies. I tested the models, refined them, and before too long I started to make money. Gambling is not about picking winners. The trick is to know your probabilities better than the bookies. Before I reveal the secrets of my betting model, we need to take a step back and get some of the basics straight. To the uninitiated, the world of online betting can be somewhat overwhelming.

But a single account is not a good idea. Unless you are a lot smarter than the bookmakers, your money will soon be gone. Each bookmaker offers slightly different odds. For some big matches it can be even lower. The second rule of gambling is to make sure you understand the relationship between odds and probabilities.

You need to do the odds-to-probability calculation every single time you place a bet. Before you part with your money, assign probabilities to each potential outcome and compare these with the odds. For many people this is a very difficult idea to get their head around. Successful gamblers back just as many, if not more, losers than winners.

The second model I tried was based on the Euro Club index , which assigns points based on the result of matches between teams. Every time a team wins a match it gains index points and when it loses, the team loses index points. This is similar to the Elo rating that is used in chess and other sports. The third model was based on a concept called expected goals. In this model, each shot a team makes is assigned a value based on historical data of shots taken in similar situations.

My model based on expected goals resulted in some spectacular gains early on in the season. It predicted the decline of Chelsea, but it overrated Arsenal and Liverpool. The bias can be explained by punters being attracted by the potential of big profits offered by large odds, and undervaluing the smaller gains to be had by betting on the favourite and bookmakers adjusting their odds accordingly.

I found a long-shot bias in earlier Premier League seasons. Not only did some bookmakers initially offer Leicester at 5, to 1 to win the league, but they were also undervalued in almost every match they played. When Manchester United host Manchester City or Arsenal visit Liverpool, these matches see two very well matched teams play each other. But punters like to see a win in one direction or the other and the bookmakers increase the odds for a draw.

This is a consistent bias over a number of Premier League seasons, and the season was no exception. After that, my betting became more sporadic. I placed a few bets when I had time, but I often forgot. There is more to life than gambling. It is, however, possible for me to assess how I would have done if I had continued to bet.

The website www. It turns out that my model continued to hold its own throughout the season. Not bad at all in the current economic climate. It is this. Lovisa Sumpter is a very talented individual. She is an associate professor of mathematics education in Sweden, where we live, and a qualified yoga instructor. She also has a much better record than her husband in football betting.

When she was still a student, Lovisa correctly predicted the outcome of every one of the 13 matches in the Swedish Stryktipset. Given her record, I asked Lovisa if she would try her luck as a benchmark model.

She would represent the typical punter. I have to admit, I expected her to lose. How wrong I was. In fact, given that Lovisa cashed in her winnings after only four weeks, the rate of return on her investment was higher than mine. What I learnt from my gambling experiment is that betting using mathematics is hard work. It took me a fair bit of time to develop the model of the Premier League. For the English Premier League, the bias against draws between well-matched teams might be explained by the media hype building up to these games.

The newspapers carry stories strongly contrasting the two teams, and punters are tempted to opt for one side or the other, neglecting the correct probability of a draw. When I tested my model on the Championship and lower leagues, without placing bets, I found that draws between well-matched teams were not undervalued on betting sites.

To be sure of a reliable profit over various markets, new models need to be developed for each of them. This is a full-time job.

There are many other jobs in mathematics and statistics that provide a much more stable income than gambling and require a much smaller starting capital. International tournaments are very different from national leagues, because they attract a much wider range of betting fans. This is very different from the long-shot bias found in the Premier League. Why do the favourites tend to be overvalued in international tournaments?

Their money goes on the well-known footballing nations, so yours should go on their slightly lesser-known opponents. However, extreme long shots, like Iceland, are still not worth the risk. If you would rather back England, then you should wait to see if they get through the group stages where they are favourites. Our cookie policy has changed. Review our cookie policy for more details and to change your cookie preference.

By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. The Daily Sport. How I used maths to beat the bookies How I used maths to beat the bookies. The trick is to know your probabilities better than the bookies Before I reveal the secrets of my betting model, we need to take a step back and get some of the basics straight. More From The Author.

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Re: gambling games accumulation 2016

Postby Zolomi В» 07.03.2020

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Re: gambling games accumulation 2016

Postby Mejin В» 07.03.2020

But a single account is not a good idea. As for predictions, for the following year, figures are changing but not largely, with satisfactory mark being increased only by several per cents:. Review our cookie policy for more details and to change your cookie preference. What I learnt from my gambling experiment is that betting using mathematics is hard work. Advantages and Disadvantages of Bitcoin Read more.

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Postby Arashimuro В» 07.03.2020

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Postby Nikokora В» 07.03.2020

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Postby Dubar В» 07.03.2020

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Postby Arashilrajas В» 07.03.2020

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Postby Nikogar В» 07.03.2020

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