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Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities?

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Gambling games darwinism

Postby Kigazilkree В» 21.02.2020

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Simulation evidence obtained within a Bayesian model of price-setting in a betting market, where anonymous gamblers queue to bet against a risk-neutral bookmaker, suggests that a gambler who wants to maximize future profits should trade on the advice of the analyst cum probability forecaster who records the best probability score, rather than the highest trading profits, during the preceding observation period.

Kelly betting against the market maker based on the probability forecasts of the analyst being assessed. This runs counter to the conventional wisdom that financial forecasts are more aptly evaluated in terms of their financial consequences than by an abstract non-monetary measure of statistical accuracy such as the number of misclassifications or a probability score.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access. Rent this article via DeepDyve. Alchain A. Journal of Political Economy — Bagehot W. Financial Analysts Journal — Barclay M. Journal of Financial Economics — Bernardo, J. Bernardo J. In: Giron F. Kluwer, Boston, pp. Bell R. Mathematical Operations Research — Blume L. Journal of Economic Theory — Blume, L. Yale University.

Breiman L. In: Neyman J. University of California Press, Berkeley, pp. Brier G. Monthly Weather Review —3. Cain M. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty — Chakravarty S. Clemon R. Management Science — L Combining economic forecasts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics — Clements M.

Economic Journal — Copeland T. Journal of Finance — Dawid A. Journal of the American Statistical Association — In: Kotz S. Wiley, New York, pp. In: Good I. Heinemann, London, pp. Acta Psychologica — Reprinted in Kyburg, H. Kreiger, New York. De Long J. Journal of Business — Diebold F. Review of Economics and Statistics — Dixon M.

International Journal of Forecasting — Easley D. Finkelstein M. Advances in Applied Probability — Forrest D. Friedman M. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. Glosten L. Graham J. Than none?.

Good I. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis. Granger C. Journal of Forecasting — In: Chan W. Imperial College Press, London. Gray P. Hakansson N. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis — Hosmer D. Wiley, New York. Kadane J. L Separating probability elicitation from utilities. Kelly J.

Bell System Technical Journal — Kraus A. Leitch G. American Economic Review — Levitt S. D Why are gambling markets organized so differently from financial market?. The Economic Journal — Lindley D. Lopez J. Luenberger D. Oxford University Press, Oxford. MacLean L. Markowitz H. Murphy A. Monthly Weather Review — Weather and Forecasting — Nau R.

Theory and Decision — Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference — Blackwell, Cambridge, MA. Ottaviani, M. Pesaran M. In: Clements M. Blackwells, Oxford, pp.

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Postby Doubar В» 21.02.2020

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